SAMI OPERATIONS COMMITTEE SUMMARY

(September 14, 1999)

Attending: Kay Prince, Bruce Bayle, Barry Stephens, Quincy Stykes, Alan Klimek, Brock Nicholson, John Jansen, Paul Muller, Elaine Zoeller, John Daniel, Ken Barrett, John Myers, Fred Durham, Dale Farley, Bill Rozett, Phil Brantley, John Benedict, Mike Teague, Don Shepherd, Ron Culberson, Eldewins Haynes, Pat Brewer, Doug Neeley, Arthur Smith, Ted Russell, Diana Andrews, Leslie Montgomery, Ron Methier, Winston Smith, Jim Joy, Jim Renfro, Tom Elmore

Welcome and Introductions

Tracy Carter welcomed the group to the Great State of Tennessee and to Chattanooga which is implementing it's vision for a sustainable future, particularly in the area of air quality improvement.

"Directions" Group Report

Alan Klimek reported on the recommendations of the ad hoc committee on SAMI directions. One recommendation to keep the OC more current on SAMI decision-making resulted in this meeting. The group agreed that quarterly OC meetings would be held over the next two years as the Integrated Assessment is completed. Monthly status reports will be posted on the SAMI website (https://www.saminet.org , note: usable but still under construction.) Consensus was reached to endorse the following recommendations of the directions group:

1. SAMI should stay on course and on schedule while it continues to pursue its original mission.

2. Acid deposition, haze and ozone all remain important.

3. The Spring 2001 deadline for completion of the Integrated Assessment must be met. The SAMI interim report at the spring 2000 Air Summit in Georgia will be a major milestone. The following Summit in Tennessee will be a good time to present SAMI findings and recommendations. Staff note: This schedule may not allow for the normal SAMI synthesis and “processing” prior to the Tennessee Summit.

4. Lawsuits will come and go but SAMI should retain a focus on good science and its original mission. Clearly stated assumptions will help SAMI stay separated from the realm of litigation.

5. More direct OC and GB involvement is needed. SAMI must work with these representatives in particular to ensure that the SAMI analysis is relevant and to understand how the states intend to use the SAMI results.

6. PAC leadership and staffing need attention as SAMI becomes increasingly visible.

7. A more active state role on subcommittees is also important in

order for the Assessment to be credible with the states.

8. The consequences of the lack of timely action by SAMI needs to be clearly stated. Action by states will be required with or without the information that SAMI is asked to provide.

Integrated Assessment Briefing

An in-depth briefing was presented to the OC on the Integrated Assessment. Pat Brewer presented the emissions inventory work. Ted Russell presented the atmospheric modeling results. Paul Muller presented effects and Tom Elmore presented the socioeconomic results. All four presentations are available at www.saminet.org under _______________. The following discussions and decisions arose in this part of the meeting.

In response to a question by Doug Neeley, Ted Russell predicted that the atmospheric modeling could be completed in 14 months. In general it requires 40 days to run six episodes but more that one computer will be applied to this modeling work. Generally, the sensitivity tests will be done next, followed by base year runs on all episodes and then strategy runs.

Regarding in-kind services by the National Park Services on Phase II visibility analyses, the OC saw no problems with this concept in general but they will await specific recommendations from the Technical Committee.

Regarding the socioeconomic Phase II analyses, several suggestions on topics were made. Diana Andrews said that state policy makers are always interested in the effects of proposed controls on competitiveness and jobs. Brock Nicholson suggested a harder look at the impacts on tourism and a focus on morbidity more than mortality. Jim Renfro also expressed interest in morbidity information. Winston Smith observed that economic information is clearly important but sense of place analyses seem less valuable. John Jansen cautioned that that this list of topics is the result of extensive discussions as well as give and take at the committee level. He cautioned against disturbing the delicate balance that led to consensus on this topic. Tom Elmore agreed to pass this guidance on to the SE workgroup.

Integrated Assessment Schedule

Doug Neeley presented the latest information on the Integrated Assessment schedule. It calls for atmospheric modeling to be completed by October 2000 and effects and socioeconomic analyses to be completed by March 2001. Assessment completion is scheduled for June 2001.

Doug recommended that SAMI keep moving forward even if the "fit" on aerosols was not ideal, recognizing that this is the first time this sort of modeling has been attempted. Alan Klimek advised the TOC to stay on schedule as their number one priority and to deal with crises over scientific problems as they arose. Jim Joy urged the committees to bring issues to the OC more quickly for resolution.

Integrated Assessment Budget

The table on the following page was presented to the OC and recommended to replace the budget adopted by the Governing Body in June of 1996. Consensus was reached to recommend the revised budget to the GB.

Strategy Update

Phil Brantley opened the strategies discussion and introduced Brock Nicholson who presented a series of policy questions for the OC to consider as the Policy Committee develops the strategies to be run through the Integrated Assessment.

1. What is the OC reaction to the philosophy behind the emission reductions contained in "Maximum Control" strategy?

2. The Policy Committee intends to stay ahead of the Integrated Assessment Contractors. Are there other key dates that are important to the OC of which the Policy Committee should be aware?

3. Are there particular technologies that the OC would like to see explored in strategy runs?

4. Should SAMI or the SAMI States work together in driving more rapid development of emissions control technologies?

5. Should SAMI or the SAMI States work together on demand management programs like smart growth, VMT reduction or energy conservation?

6. Should the Policy Committee explore scenarios that involve emission reductions outside the eight SAMI States?

7. Others?

Brock presented the strategies overview chart presented below (two pages over -- after the IA budget chart) and received several comments on improving it's usefulness.

Brock also presented a spectrum of controls for consideration by the group as follows:

· No controls beyond existing programs

· Possible strategy to be defined

· Minimal controls strategy

· "On the Books" strategy

· Possible strategy to be defined

· "On the Way" strategy (possibly here or below)

· "Most likely" strategy based mainly on technology

· "On the Way" strategy (possibly here or above)

· "Maximum Controls" strategy

· Possible strategy to be defined

· Total Control or Zero Emissions strategy

In a general discussion on the approach to strategy design, Ron Methier urged the PC to develop strategies on the bold side to test what is possible with existing control technologies. Jim Joy agreed with this guidance but cautioned that using strategy runs to test what is possible does not imply that the OC will recommend uniform controls for all states or even for all SAMI states. He suggested that state decision makers will be interested in where the benefits acrue. Jim and Ron agreed that the goal is consensus and that now that the OC is directly involved in the process, they can assist in optimizing the SAMI decision-making process.

Governing Body Agenda

The agenda for the GB call set for the following week was reviewed and approved.

Standard SAMI Presentation

Pat Brewer asked for interest in a Powerpoint Presentation for general speaking engagements on SAMI. In response to widespread interest, the presentation will be updated and distributed widely.

Adjournment

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT BUDGET OPTIONS

(In Thousands of Dollars - August 1999)

	EXISTING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT BUDGET (approved 6-96)			TOC BUDGET RECOMMENDATION (with existing $900k appropriation)		TOC BUDGET RECOMMENDATION (with possible $750k FY2000 appropriation)
IA Element	Cash	In-kind	Total	Amount	Change*	Amount	Change*
Emissions and Direct Costs	570-970	200	1170	970	-200	970	-200
Atmospheric	310-1080		1080	1280	+200	1280	+200
Effects – Acid	400-650	50-150	800	650	-150	800
Effects – Ozone	100	25	125	325	+200	325	+200
Effects – Visibility	70-80		80**	80		80
Socioeconomic	100-200		200	200		590	+390
Final Report	100		100	100		100
IA TOTAL	1650-3180		3555	3605	+50	4145	+590
SAMI Overall Budget				(98)***		112
Assumptions:				FY2000		FY2001
PC and PAC (total)				170		170
Office and other				503		513
State and Region IV annual contribution				495		495

* Change compared to the IA total in the existing budget. ** Includes in-kind services of $30,000. *** The brackets indicate that expenditures for PAC, PC or Office would need to drop or contributions would need to rise to balance the SAMI overall budget at this level of expenditure for the Integrated Assessment. Since all the IA expenditures would not all occur during this year, the possible FY2000 appropriation or FY 2000 contributions could also solve the problem as indicated in the next column. This is the closest to "in the black" the IA has been since authorization.

SAMI STRATEGIES OVERVIEW - PRELIMINARY (9-9-99)

SOURCE SECTOR	"ON THE BOOKS"	"ON THE WAY"	"MAXIMUM CONTROL"
SHORT DESCRIPTION	CAA Controls as they existed when SAMI formed in the early 90's.	On the Books plus recent regualtions such as Tier II, 8hr O3 and NOx SIPs.	State-of-the-Art controls applied to all sources as soon as possible. "Off the shelf" controls for 2010 and existing prototypes for 2040.
MOBILE - ON-ROAD	Tier I, I&M, Reform Gas and others	Tier II + low S fuel	LEV and Fleets to CNG in 2006 25% reduction in VMT Growth All ZEV by 2040 (preliminary)
MOBILE - NON-ROAD	Compression and Spark Ignition Controls and Marine Controls	Same as OTB	In Committee
STATIONARY - INDUSTRIAL	RACT and MACT	NOx SIP Call 7/10 Year MACT	NSPS by 2010 New units to natural gas 90% NOx and 95% S Redxn (preliminary)
STATIONARY - ELECTRIC	Title IV SOx and NOx Controls plus RACT	NOx SIP Call	In Committee
AREA	RACT and MACT	Same as OTB	In Committee
ISSUES	OTB and OTW may look similar at 2040.	Predicting aerosol controls to comply with PM and Haze Rules.	Dealing with NSPS. BART for haze compliance?